A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
